Jeremy de Souza

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Interesting:

Accessibility in Seattle Times

Nice article in the Seattle times about Accessibility in Windows Vista. Rob Sinclair and Annuska Perkins whom I work with are featured in the article. What they are saying really highlights the way we think about assisstive technology at Microsoft - our approach doesn't simply target people with disabilities but really attempts to empower all our customers along functional lines. Speech recognition makes it easier to interact with your computer if you have limited mobility with your hands. Magnifiers make it easier to read text on those webpages that have ultra small type but really pretty layouts.

Guanxi & Kai-Fu Lee

Last weekend I finished Guanxi. Interesting historical account of Microsoft's investments in China and the strategies needed to be successful in that country. The book argues that success in China is much aided by building trustworthy relationships with influencers, behaving in a manner appropriate to the culture and proving to the country that they will receive benefits of investment that go beyond offshored labor. The last point being critical, Microsoft's investments via the creation of MSR China and the Advanced Technology Center (ATC) have had a profound impact on showcasing and developing product development/research talent in China.

This book in interesting to me mostly because of the people mentioned in it, the most central being Kai-Fu Lee. Kai-Fu was famous in the industry as a speech scientist and at Microsoft for leading Microsoft's efforts in China. He became seriously newsworthy when he left Microsoft for Google and a legal despute ensued over his non-compete agreement with Microsoft.

I had the opportunity to meet with Kai-Fu in the context of text-to-speech, while he was the VP of NISD (Natural Interactive Services Division) in Redmond. I remember him being bright and personable. Less than a year later, he was leaving the company with a lot of employees like myself wondering why. If you're curious the last chapter of Guanxi covers the Kai-Fu exit to Google and his personal motivations for doing so.

The Smartest Guys in the Room

Great DVD documentary from Mark Cuban's HDNet on the Enron scandal. It focuses on the personalities of the uber smart executives that ran Enron and how their talent, hubris and delusions resulted in one of the largest cases of financial fraud in the history of corporate america.

The facet of the documentary that I really found interesting was Enron's role on the California energy crisis/recall of Governor Gray Davis and subsequent election of a famous actor we all know. Enron energy traders were exporting power out of California, turning off power plants in California to create demand and then importing it back at record costs. With individuals facing obscene electric bills and the state of California picking up the tab to the tune of $35 billion, people became pretty upset and Enron kept made money.

It's really when you learn that Ken Lay met with Arnold Schwarzenegger during the crisis, that the magnitude of political and economic manipulation that Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling are suggested to have carried out becomes unbelievably disturbing. Makes you wonder who elected Schwarzenegger - the people of California or Enron?

Consumer choice and the future of business

Chris Anderson gave a talk at Microsoft this week regarding his new book. Jeff and I both attended this talk so it's worth checking out what he had to say. I haven't had a chance to read the book yet (just ordered it) but I've been reading about "the long tail" just about everywhere.

The most interesting item I've read in this regard was the forethought strategy column in last month's HBR. It focused on the application of long tailed distributions to cost-control strategies for unlimited content subscription services such as Netflix, Blockbuster etc.

The authors proposed three strategies that could control costs without imposing artificial limits that go counter to the "unlimited" offering:

- Promote from the back catalog - less mainstream items have lower cost/unit
- Slow consumptions - some types of content take longer to consume
- Encourage procrastination - recommend items customers have forgotten about

Though the notion of "the long tail" has just come into mainstream just as "the world is flat" did a year ago, I think that any brick and mortar storefront that has to balance the economics of inventory and consumer choice, has had to apply similar cost controlling strategies that influence user behavior and consumption. Examples that comes to mind is "doorcrashers" on holiday sales that bring in large numbers of customers who generally see something else on sale that they might want or the strategic arrangement of displays to optimally distribute demand.

Most of these storefronts generally limit choice in some way since their inventory is based on projections of consumer purchases because it's impossible to stock every product imaginable in every storefront and still be profitable.

If we are truly entering a new era of business as Chris Anderson suggests, where companies focus on "the long tail" and capitalize on the consumer choice driven economy, then I think brick and mortar storefronts without online counter parts will be facing uphill challenges when trying to sell "quality" niche products.

I'd propose that the magic formula might  look like this:

Discoverability of a product + Reactivity of supply chain + Distributed inventory = Surplus capacity for profit from "the long tail"

Companies with distributed inventories and flexibility around availability of the product to the customer are best positioned to profit from the long tail. That obscure book, DVD or CD is much cheaper and efficient to stock if you can guarantee that it will ship in 3-5 days instead of 1 for that hot bestseller. Brick and mortar storefronts attempt to deliver immediate gratification by having what you need in stock via local inventory.

Online sellers have customer purchasing projections that can be updated in real-time - if x number of customers order a book, then they can perhaps increase stock or make strong recommendations to customers. The reaction time of the seller's supply chain to adapt to consumer demand is critical.

If you don't find the sneaker you want at Foot Locker, they can have it shipped to you if you know what you're looking for - discoverability is critical. If you don't know what you're looking for then, you're limited to what you see in the store and you are an opportunity they haven't capitalized on. Shoes are harder to buy online, but I can't remember the last time I found a CD that wasn't "mainstream" with ease at Best Buy.

If brick and mortar storefronts cannot maximize the three aforementioned variables, then I'd argue that they will be continue to be successful in pushing the bestsellers but they would undoubtedly see limited growth in contrast to online retailers.

VW Backseat Drivers Guide

Came across a really interesting and funny insert in this month's Wired Magazine - a instructional manual for backseat drivers. It attempts to pull the backseat driver's reputation "out of the gutter and back on the road where it belongs."

The manual highlights a number of responsiilities for the rear-right side (backseat) driver including checking blindspots and parallel parking: When you're doing outside vehicle navigation, all eyes are on you. So when you succeed, you succeed in public. But when you fail, you fail in public.

The manual was very nicely put together and it reminded me of Virgin Atlantic's passenger information cards that circulated a few years ago. I'm nowhere close to becoming a Jetta owner, but this kind of marketing does help focus VW brand on the holistic driver experience in a fun and original manner.

My copy is now stashed in the backseat for any backseat drivers ignorant of their role and responibilities :)

BillG's Transition

This afternoon SteveB and BillG had a press conference to announce Bill's 2 year transition from Chief Software Architect to an advisory role at Microsoft. Bill will be spending more time on projects at the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

Bill was speaking about how Microsoft is more than just himself and there's been to some extent an overfocus on his role when there are many great technical and business leaders at the company. Although Microsoft employees learned of this news at the same time that it was made public to the rest of the world, I can't say this is a huge surprise. In the past few years, many have said that Bill Gates may be remembered as the world's greatest philantropist rather than just Microsoft's chairman, chief software architect and visionary of the software industry. Considering the preceding in combination with the visible technical leadership of Ray Ozzie around Windows Live, the transition seems natural and expected.

All successful companies with great leaders need strong succession strategies. I definitely welcome the transparency around Bill's decision.

Cirque du Soleil - Varekai

Last Saturday, we watched Varekai performed by Cirque du Soleil here in Redmond. It was an awesome show and our seats were close enough that it was a pretty immersive experience - during some of the acts the performers were actually swinging over head.

I was generally fascinated by Cirque du Soleil formula throughout the show: the innovative construction of the set, the unbelievable physical feats, choreography and original score. Something I noticed during the show was that were these little mini-performances all over the stage as well as above in the scaffolding where you wouldn't think to look. You could watch one of these and practically miss the main events.

From a logistical standpoint, the show was very well organized from parking to entering and leaving the main tent through a cirque du soleil store. If you thought popcorn at the movies was expensive think again. It was interesting to observe the emotional purchases of DVDs and memorabilia after the show was over.

Cirque du Solei is one of Québec's most successful cultural exports as well as a thriving business with a strong social consciousness. Ironically, I never had a chance to see them live when I lived in Québec but about a month ago I saw this familiar tent (le grand chapiteau) driving home on the 520.

I've added Corteo to my list of DVDs to buy. It's their newest show filmed in HD which probably won't be the same as watching it live but I'm sure I'll enjoy it anyways.